Washington Commanders: First Quarter Season Review

The Washington Commanders stand at an even .500 through the end of the first quarter of the 2025 season.

There have been flashes and disappointments including a stuttering injury-hit start for the QB1 Jayden Daniels and the WR1 Terry McLaurin. In fact, the list of those unhealthy right now could rival an episode of ER – key players such as Austin Ekeler out for the season and many others (Deatrich Wise for example) on IR.

Season Overview: A Rocky Start and Glimpses of Promise

The Washington Commanders have reached the end of the first quarter of the 2025 season with a balanced record, standing at .500. The opening weeks have been a mixture of promising flashes and frustrating setbacks, largely due to a raft of injuries that have affected key contributors.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin, both expected to be pivotal to the team's success, have struggled with injury, disrupting their impact and rhythm on the field.

Looking Ahead: A Crucial Clash at SoFi Stadium

As the season progresses, the Commanders are set to travel to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, where they will face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers' offensive line is currently hampered by injuries, presenting the Commanders with a valuable opportunity to regroup and deliver a strong performance. A victory on Sunday could serve as a catalyst, restoring confidence and momentum within the squad.

Panel Insights: Reflections and Optimism

To assess the campaign so far and look forward to the remainder of the season, UKHTTC welcomes back Simon Thurston and Wales Commanders Aled. They join UKHTTC founder Christian Burt to reflect on the first four games, analyse the highs and lows, and share a sense of optimism for what lies ahead in 2025.

Offensive MVP through the first four

Simon: This probably won't be a surprise to any Commanders fan, but through the first 4 weeks my MVP is Deebo Samuel. He's put up solid, if not spectacular numbers as a receiver and currently leads the team with 22 catches for 204 yards and 2 TDs.

His versatility as a runner has added another dimension to what Kliff Kingsbury can call and Samuel has currently contributed 46 yards and another TD. And whilst this isn't technically offense-related, he's been a constant threat in the kick-off return game.

Questions I have of him: can he stay healthy throughout the season? Can he get 80+ catches and 800+ yards receiving? If both answers are in the affirmative, I believe we're in a good spot.

Aled: Deebo Samuel in my opinion has been the heartbeat of the offense so far - explosive after the catch, versatile in how he’s used, and the kind of player who can flip momentum on a single play. In an offense still finding its rhythm, his ability to create something out of nothing makes him invaluable.

Christian: Despite injuries to the starting quarterback, the team's primary running back, and the top wide receiver in Washington, the offense has maintained a productive output. The Commanders currently rank 8th in the NFL with an average of 26.8 points per game and are 2nd in rushing at 154.8 yards per game.

If the two Defense-oriented coaches are unable to resolve defensive issues by season's end while Kliff Kingsbury continues his current performance, might this impact team coaching evaluations? Based on offensive contributions, Kliff Kingsbury is my Commanders' Offensive MVP; alternatively, Deebo Samuel if I have to stick to a player – he’s been pretty clutch.

Defensive MVP through the first four

Simon: In what's been an inconsistent showing from the Defense so far this season, for me there's one player who's stood out -- as much for what doesn't show on the stat sheet (hustle and effort) as the numbers he's put up. Dorance Armstrong.

Armstrong been disruptive at the point of attack and productive whenever he's taken the field. He's notched up 19 total tackles so far this season, along with 3 sacks. In fact, after the week 3 victory against Las Vegas, Armstrong led the league in QB pressures with 18. Given key injuries and some often below-par secondary play, he'll need to maintain his early season pace if Washington wants to be playing football in January.

Aled: Daron Payne has been excellent on the defensive line. He may not always flash on the stat sheet, but his strength and leverage control the interior. His reliability and toughness set the tone for the entire front seven.

Christian: The Commanders’ Defense is in the bottom third of the league in many key categories so far and is particularly vulnerable to big plays and passing attacks. The backfield has been a mess and not helped by the likes of veterans Will Harris (better in coverage and a bit of a general back there) going on IR.

The NFL is unrelenting and will continue to target any weakness week after week.  If the Commanders fail to fix those issues, then Joe Whitt Jnr will soon be on a very hot seat – even if the personnel recruitment and injuries were out of his hands. 

My Defensive MVP through the first four is DE Dorance Armstrong -- His pass rush win rate (PRWR) stands at 23%, ranking him 10th among edge defenders. Unfortunately, the Commanders have very little pass rush opposite of Armstrong – a FO failure in the 2025 Draft and FA process or just unlucky to see Wise go down injured?

Optimism and Concerns

Simon: In what's been a yo-yo kind of start to the campaign, I'm definitely buoyed by the return of Daniels. Whether he's 100% at this stage or not, his presence and ability is, with the greatest of respect to Marcus Mariota, a significant upgrade at the most important position in football.

As far as concerns go, I've been somewhat bemused by some of our defensive play this season. Whether it's scheme, personnel issues, a lack of communication, or all three, remains to be seen. But whatever the cause(s), I, along with many other fans, are deeply frustrated. With a challenging schedule ahead and with 5 NFC East matchups still to come, we're going to need to fix these issues pretty swiftly, if we want to be playing meaningful ball come November and December.

Aled: The addition of Laremy Tunsil can’t be overstated. His stability at left tackle gives Jayden Daniels when he is healthy the foundation to play his game extending plays, taking shots downfield, and leaning into his athleticism. With Tunsil holding down the blind side, the ceiling for this offense rises considerably.

My concerns -- the injuries are starting to pile up, and with such thin depth across key positions, every knock feels magnified. You can sense the drop-off when backups are on the field, which raises big questions about how sustainable this start really is over a 17-game season.

Christian: Optimism stems from the improved health of quarterback Jayden Daniels and the anticipated return of right guard Sam Cosmi. Additionally, several younger players on the roster—Christian McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, Trey Amos, and Bill Croskey-Merritt—have demonstrated noteworthy potential, suggesting promise for 2025 and subsequent seasons.

It will be interesting to see how many looks McCaffrey will get from Daniels om Sunday.

However, concerns remain regarding whether the Commanders extended their reliance on veteran talents such as future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner and edge rusher Von Miller beyond their peak playing years.

In particular, Von Miller appears to have experienced a significant decline in performance, raising questions about the efficacy of this strategy. Obviously the poor Ron Rivera drafts have contributed heavily to this reliance on older players, but we are straying into over-the-over-the-hill gang territory.

Who has disappointed in burgundy & gold?

Simon: I hate to single players out, because I'm a big believer in team chemistry and a unit being more than merely the sum of its parts. However, one player that stands out to me as not delivering as (supposedly) prescribed is Marshon Lattimore.

Yes, he had (maybe still has) injury issues and for a CB, hamstring problems aren't a recipe for long term success. In which case, I have to question why we traded for him. When he's not being penalised, he's seemingly giving up catches left, right and centre. Definitely not what was expected.

Aled: Joe Whitt Jr came in with a strong reputation for coaching secondaries, but his Defense has struggled badly. The unit is giving up too many explosive plays, the secondary looks disorganized, and miscommunication has been a recurring theme. Opposing QBs are targeting Washington’s corners with ease, and the balance between scheme and execution hasn’t clicked. Given the talent on the roster, expectations were much higher and so far, Whitt’s Defense has been a letdown.

Christian: Brandon Coleman has not met expectations following his transition from left tackle to left guard. Although this change was considered appropriate for his skillset, Coleman has been listed as inactive (healthy scratch!) for the past two games.

On Defense, Marshon Lattimore's performance has varied from week to week, as noted by Simon. This Sunday against the Chargers, it will be important to observe whether Lattimore can demonstrate his previously established strengths or if ongoing injury concerns/form have affected his performance whereby the term ‘washed’ might appear in many a blog & pod.

Season prediction

Simon: At this stage, I must say I'm not overly confident on another playoff run this season. Does that mean we'll have failed and regressed this season? For me, no. After an almost fairytale-like 2024 season, where we seemingly came back from the dead several times, producing highlight-reel after highlight-reel, a repeat of that success was always going to be a big ask.

Have we upgraded the roster compared to last season? Yes.

But we're still a little way off being what I would consider as consistent contenders. The roster is also the oldest in the league. And whilst veteran leadership is important, we also need speed and (more) durability across the team. It'll be disappointing to not be playing in January, but it also won't be the disaster many fans will be screaming about on X!

Aled: A 9–8 finish feels like the most realistic outcome good enough to stay in the Wild Card mix, but not quite in that top tier of NFC teams. Whether they sneak into the playoffs will depend largely on two things: the health of the roster and whether the offensive line and secondary can hold together down the stretch.

Christian: Dan Quinn led the Commanders to an NFC Championship appearance in his first season in Washington, demonstrating his ability to elevate team culture despite an overall roster of slightly-above-average calibre.

The current season will present challenges, with several elite quarterbacks—including Patrick Mahomes, Caleb Williams, and this week’s opponent Justin Herbert—posing significant tests for the defensive coaching staff. This weekend’s matchup is particularly important, as the Washington Defense faces a Chargers offensive line impacted by injuries, offering an opportunity to put right the Falcons loss.

A victory on Sunday could position the Commanders toward a 10-7 finish; however, a more cautious projection would anticipate an 8-9 or 9-8 record, indicating that further roster improvements may be necessary in the 2026 offseason.